While we may think ransomware is a 20th-century phenomenon, it has existed in its most primitive form almost from 75 BCE. This is kidnapping of data for ransom, and the angle of physical harm and personal danger is also covered when medical facilities are targeted, as seen by the 2025 NHS breach. It has already been “democratized” by becoming available as a service, and anyone knowing the right TOR addresses can use it. And so, as a new year approaches, we must ask, will it get any better (for us), or worse (for us, again)? Let us be real, it will get best (for the bad actors).
One factor we should thank for this is the most obvious one: AI. There is plenty of fear about malware developed using vibe coding, but let us state the obvious: most of them are what we used to call “script kiddies.” While there have been some semiserious attempts, there are cases where these wannabe malware builders themselves fell prey to scamsters. The reason why they cannot be completely ruled out as a danger is thanks to the scale and speed offered by AI. Another area of concern is polymorphic malware. In simpler terms, malware that can mutate upon detection. While this has largely been in the realm of research, 2026 can very well be the year it can break out and create havoc. While the two threats mentioned above are still in dormant or low-level stages, the direction to look at with more concern is tooling. AI can absolutely be weaponized by skilled threat actors, and the danger is only expected to evolve in 2026.
Social engineering remains one of the most favorite vectors for ransomware. The combination of the always-on and intensely attention-hungry nature of a section of the population (pejoratively called the “terminally online”) and the emergence of threats like deepfakes is expected to make the situation worse in the coming year. We are already witnessing Generative AI being used to generate realistic executive voice clones, tailored follow-up messages, or fake system prompts. They can also deploy SEO tactics that poison search results to deliver malware disguised as legitimate tools, scaling attacks against high-value targets. Wondering how insidious the deepfake strategy can get? The saga of the scamming of UK-based engineering group Arup deserves to be read in its entirety. This problem will be expected to worsen.
Another sector that will expect to see increased ransomware attacks is…well, all the critical sectors. We have so far seen targeted ransomware attacks on as varied targets as retail giants like Marks & Spencer, automobile maker Jaguar Land Rover, and critical infrastructure like the Colonial Oil pipeline system. In addition, with geopolitical tensions ratcheting up and government-sponsored bad actors using the internet as a battlefield, things will get bad here, too.
| Icon | Target Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 🔐 | Remote Access & VPN Platforms | Entry points often exploited for initial access |
| ✉️ | Email & Messaging Platforms | Phishing & malicious attachments |
| 🧑💼 | Identity & Access Management (IAM) | Credential theft & privilege escalation |
| 💾 | Backup & Disaster Recovery | Prevent data recovery after attack |
| 🗃️ | File Servers & Data Storage | Encrypt critical business data |
| 🖥️ | Virtualization & Hypervisors | Attack core infrastructure hosting multiple systems |
| 🔁 | File Transfer & Data Exchange | Exploit insecure data movement |
| 🧮 | Endpoint & Server OS | Lock user and server environments |
| 🌐 | Web Applications & Application Servers | Exploit web-facing services |
| ⚙️ | Critical Infrastructure & OT Platforms | Disrupt physical systems and industrial operations |
Another area where we can definitely expect to see things get badder is multi-extortion ransomware. And why not? It adds more leverage to the threat. The combined threat of data exfiltration threats plus data loss through encryption has a higher chance of compelling victims to pay up larger payments faster. After all, it is nothing but a lose-lose scenario for them. Bad actors are now preferring double-extortion, as it pressures the victims’ willingness to pay higher ransoms, since victims fear reputational damage from leaks, auctions, or customer notifications more than temporary file loss. Groups like Black Basta and Qilin use leak sites to showcase stolen data, creating public urgency that single-extortion lacks.
So…is there no good news? To be honest, there is none, but Sofia Ali, Associate Director & Principal Analyst, QKS Group, has this advise that will be of immense use: “By 2026, ransomware will be less about noisy attacks and more about smart, well-planned ones. Attackers are using AI to move faster, trick people more easily, and apply pressure through data leaks and multiple forms of extortion. For organizations, the real challenge is no longer just stopping malware, but dealing with attackers who understand human behavior, business pressure, and reputation risk.”